BTC Price Prediction: Navigating the $105K Support Test Amid Market Reset

#BTC

• Technical Support Test: Bitcoin's ability to hold above $105,000 will determine near-term direction, with Bollinger lower band and MACD providing key signals
• Leverage Market Reset: The $19 billion position liquidation creates healthier market conditions for sustainable growth despite short-term volatility
• Institutional Accumulation: Growing institutional interest and potential trust fund allocations provide fundamental support for long-term price appreciation

BTC Price Prediction

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin at Critical Juncture

Bitcoin is currently trading at $106,499.94, below its 20-day moving average of $116,250.57, indicating short-term bearish pressure. The MACD shows positive momentum at 2,850.74, suggesting potential upward movement despite recent declines. Bollinger Bands position the current price NEAR the lower band at $104,614.23, which could act as support.

According to BTCC financial analyst James, 'The technical setup shows Bitcoin is testing crucial support levels. While trading below the 20-day MA suggests near-term weakness, the MACD divergence and proximity to Bollinger lower band indicate potential for a rebound if $105K support holds.'

Market Sentiment: Reset Phase Amid Leverage Unwind

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant leverage reset with $19 billion in positions liquidated, creating what analysts describe as a market normalization phase. Mixed signals emerge as Bitcoin holds above $105,000 despite bearish technical breaks, while institutional interest grows with Florida considering Bitcoin trust fund allocations.

BTCC financial analyst James notes, 'The leverage wipeout, while painful short-term, creates healthier foundations for future growth. The combination of U.S. bank recovery sentiment and strategic bitcoin accumulation by institutions suggests underlying strength despite current volatility.'

Factors Influencing BTC's Price

Bitcoin’s $19B Leverage Wipeout Signals Market Reset Phase

Bitcoin has entered a critical reset phase following a $19 billion leverage wipeout that rattled crypto markets last week. Analysts describe the correction as a necessary purge of excessive speculation, potentially setting the stage for recovery—though macro stability and renewed institutional inflows remain key to sustained progress.

The liquidation cascade, tracked by Glassnode, erased overleveraged positions amid cooling demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs. Prices now consolidate between $108,400 and $117,100, a zone analysts call fragile but structurally sound. "This was a mechanical sell-off, not a fundamental flight," noted Thiago Duarte of Axi. "The market eliminated speculative froth rather than facing systemic collapse."

Diverging views emerge on whether the wipeout marks a bottom or precedes deeper losses. Tim Su of Amber Group observes: "Crypto is rebuilding confidence—this is either the foundation or the first crack." The event underscores Bitcoin’s volatility but also its resilience as traders recalibrate exposure after one of 2025’s most dramatic deleveraging episodes.

Metaplanet Stock Tumbles Amid Crypto Market Selloff, mNAV Ratio Dips Below 1.0

Metaplanet Inc. shares plunged 6.5% in Tokyo trading as a $19.3 billion cryptocurrency market rout dragged its market value below the worth of its Bitcoin holdings. The stock closed at ¥402, with volatility extremes ranging from ¥104.50 to ¥1,930 this year.

CEO Simon Gerovich defended the company's strategy, stating preferred shares amplify Bitcoin-per-share growth. Yet the mNAV ratio—a key metric comparing enterprise value to BTC reserves—slipped to 0.99, signaling market skepticism. Traders exchanged 65.6 million shares as the price swung between ¥387 and ¥437 intraday.

The selloff mirrors broader digital asset weakness, with Bloomberg data confirming Metaplanet's enterprise value now trails its Bitcoin treasury. As one of Japan's most BTC-correlated equities, the stock serves as a leveraged proxy for crypto sentiment—and today's action suggests fading confidence in corporate Bitcoin strategies during downturns.

Bitcoin Holds Above $105K Amid U.S. Bank Recovery and Market Sentiment Shift

Bitcoin stabilized near $106,000 after a brief dip below $105,000, mirroring a rebound in U.S. regional bank stocks. Lenders like Truist Financial and Fifth Third Bancorp reported stronger-than-expected credit loss provisions, easing fears of systemic cracks. The S&P Regional Banks Index recovered part of its 6.3% plunge from Thursday, driven by renewed confidence in financial sector resilience.

European and Japanese banks also regained footing after earlier losses. Analysts noted regional institutions remain "well reserved for potential losses," suggesting markets overreacted to initial panic. The cooling of trade tensions under the Trump administration further bolstered risk appetite.

Bitcoin Turns Bearish Below $107.5K as Analysts Eye $97K Support

Bitcoin's price trajectory has taken a bearish turn, slipping below the critical $107,500 support level. The cryptocurrency now trades at $105,306, marking a 5.45% decline over the past 24 hours. This downturn follows a sharp retreat from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,251—a move that wiped out $600 billion in crypto market capitalization and triggered $800 million in long liquidations.

Market observers warn of further downside risk, with weak support until the $101,000–$102,000 range. "The $108,000 floor has broken," noted analyst @TedPillows. "Reclaiming $110,000 could spark recovery, but absent that, we're looking at more pain ahead." Technical indicators suggest the $97,000 level may emerge as the next major buying opportunity should current bearish momentum persist.

Billionaire Ricardo Salinas Predicts Bitcoin Will Reach $1.5M, Outperform Gold

Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas, who holds 80% of his wealth in Bitcoin, forecasts a 14x surge in BTC's price to $1.516 million per coin. This would allow Bitcoin to catch up with gold's market cap before ultimately surpassing it. Salinas envisions a deflationary reset repricing global wealth by the end of the decade.

Gold recently became the first asset in history to hit a $30 trillion market cap, with prices hovering near $4,300 amid what analysts call a "global rush into gold." The precious metal has rallied 60% year-over-year, outperforming tech giants like Nvidia and Apple. Central banks and ETFs are driving record inflows as investors seek safety from currency weakness and geopolitical uncertainty.

While gold's parabolic move dominates headlines, Salinas positions Bitcoin as the next evolutionary store of value. The cryptocurrency's fixed supply and digital nature could make it gold's successor in an era of monetary debasement.

Bitcoin Miners Enter New Debt-Fueled Era as Hashrate Hits 1 Zetahash

Bitcoin mining has entered uncharted territory with network hashrate surpassing 1 zetahash per second in September, even as mining profitability declined. The milestone coincides with a dramatic repricing of mining equities, which nearly doubled in value since August despite BTC's 3.7% drop.

Public miners now command a combined $90 billion market capitalization, up from $41 billion in August, as investors reward balance sheet strength and diversified revenue streams. Leading performers include Bitfarms (+162%) and Canaan (+149%), benefiting from their high-performance computing contracts and power infrastructure.

The sector's evolution reflects a strategic pivot toward digital infrastructure plays, with miners emphasizing AI colocation and data center buildouts to supplement volatile block rewards. Fixed-rate power agreements have become crucial as record network difficulty compresses operating margins across the industry.

Gold's Market Value Surpasses $30 Trillion Amid Economic Uncertainty

Gold futures surged to $4,371 per ounce on COMEX December markets early Friday, propelling the precious metal's total market valuation beyond $30 trillion. This milestone highlights gold's enduring role as a haven asset during periods of economic instability, drawing investors away from volatile equities and cryptocurrencies.

The rally reflects deepening anxiety over inflation and geopolitical risks. As sovereign debts balloon and currencies fluctuate, institutional portfolios are increasing allocations to bullion—a centuries-old hedge against monetary erosion. The move coincides with waning confidence in speculative assets, including Bitcoin and other digital tokens.

Market dynamics reveal a broader flight to stability. While tech stocks correct and crypto markets convulse, gold's 20% year-to-date gain demonstrates its inverse correlation to risk assets. Central bank purchases and ETF inflows suggest this trend may persist through ongoing macroeconomic turbulence.

U.S. Seizes $15B in Bitcoin, Sparking Debate Over Strategic Reserves

The U.S. government has confiscated nearly 130,000 BTC—worth approximately $15 billion—marking the largest forfeiture in history. This unprecedented move raises questions about the future of these assets as part of the newly established strategic Bitcoin reserves.

Legal experts caution that the process will be protracted. Seizure is merely the first step; courts must determine if the assets were illicitly obtained, followed by victim identification and compensation. "Seizing doesn’t equate to ownership—it’s a claim," said Aidan Larkin, CEO of Asset Reality, during a DAS London keynote. "Resolution could span five to ten years, but improved asset management frameworks are now a priority."

Under a March executive order by former President Trump, any remaining funds post-compensation will likely be retained by the U.S. Treasury. The government already holds $15B-$20B in forfeited Bitcoin, per Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Wintermute and Market Makers Halt Trading During Bitcoin Liquidation Crisis

Market makers Wintermute and LO:TECH temporarily suspended trading operations during last week's $19 billion liquidation event, triggered by Bitcoin's sharp price decline. The pause was a defensive maneuver—not a profit-seeking strategy as speculated on social media—but a necessary response to breached risk parameters.

"Our systems follow strict delta-neutral rules," explained Wintermute strategist Jasper De Maere. When market volatility exceeded predefined thresholds, the algorithmic trading protocols automatically disengaged. Market makers like Wintermute typically provide liquidity by continuously buying and selling crypto assets, but extreme conditions forced a tactical retreat.

The liquidity vacuum emerged as Trump-era trade war fears resurfaced, with proposed China tariffs sparking a cascade of leveraged position unwinds. Bitcoin's 15% intraday drop vaporized derivatives positions across major exchanges including Binance, Bybit and FTX.

Florida Legislature Considers Allocating Trust Funds to Bitcoin Investments

Florida's legislature is weighing a groundbreaking proposal to invest up to 10% of state-managed trust funds into Bitcoin by 2026. The move signals growing institutional confidence in cryptocurrency as a strategic asset class.

Proponents cite Bitcoin's historic appreciation and inflation-hedging properties as key rationales. Critics remain wary of volatility, though the debate reflects broader acceptance of digital assets in traditional portfolios.

Bitcoin Faces Critical Test as Short Positions Surge Amid Market Weakness

Bitcoin's $110,000 support level is under scrutiny as leveraged short positions mount, signaling growing bearish sentiment. The cryptocurrency has slipped 3% this week, failing to consolidate above $115,000 after last week's $19 billion market liquidation. Spot demand remains tepid, reflecting hesitation among both retail and institutional investors.

Geopolitical tensions compound the market's fragility. Former U.S. President Donald Trump's confirmation of ongoing trade war measures with China—including impending 100% tariffs—has further dampened risk appetite. The convergence of technical weakness and macroeconomic headwinds creates a pivotal moment for BTC's near-term trajectory.

How High Will BTC Price Go?

Based on current technical and fundamental analysis, Bitcoin faces a critical test at the $105,000 support level. The convergence of technical indicators and market sentiment suggests several potential scenarios:

BTCC financial analyst James emphasizes that 'The $105K level represents a critical psychological and technical threshold. A successful hold here, combined with decreasing leverage and growing institutional interest, could propel Bitcoin toward $120K in the coming weeks. However, failure to maintain this support may test the $97K level before establishing a new base.'